Ethiopia-Eritrea clashes raise fears for Red Sea shipping lanes
Eritrean troops allegedly crossed into Ethiopia's Tigray region, the first fighting between the two countries in over 25 years.
Eritrean troops allegedly crossed into Ethiopia's northern Tigray region along the Eritrean border and clashed with Ethiopian forces, bringing the two countries to the brink of their first war in more than 25 years. The fighting could extend toward Eritrea's Red Sea port of Assab if it spreads.
Military activity near Assab could raise war-risk costs for ships using the corridor, adding to the threat Houthi attacks already pose in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow waterway between Yemen and Djibouti. The Small Wars Journal argues that the United States should use its ties with both capitals to secure an Eritrean withdrawal from Tigray and keep Ethiopian forces away from Assab.
Saudi Arabia is rerouting about 4 million barrels of oil a day through the Red Sea, most of it bound for Asia, and those tankers must pass 600 miles of Eritrean coast. Weekly vessel transits through Bab el-Mandeb have already fallen from about 38 to 25 since the Houthis renewed attacks in July.
Why it mattersTankers carrying Saudi oil must sail past 600 miles of Eritrean coast, so fighting there would put a route that is already shrinking at further risk.