Ethiopia-Eritrea conflict threatens Red Sea shipping
Renewed hostilities near Eritrea's Assab port could increase war-risk costs for global commerce.
Renewed fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea near the Eritrean border could threaten Red Sea shipping lanes. Eritrean troops have allegedly crossed into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, leading to clashes with Ethiopian forces. This conflict has the potential to extend toward Eritrea’s port of Assab, a critical maritime corridor.
Military activity near Assab could increase war-risk costs for global commerce, exacerbating the existing threat from the Houthis in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The United States is urged to use its influence with both governments to prevent Ethiopian forces from advancing on Assab and to secure an Eritrean withdrawal from Tigray.
Global commerce faces a potential second shock to Red Sea shipping, as Saudi Arabia reroutes oil exports through this route due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Weekly vessel transits through the Bab el-Mandeb have already fallen from 38 to 25 since July due to Houthi attacks.
Why it mattersGlobal commerce and shipping routes are threatened by potential conflict escalation near Eritrea's coast and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.