El Niño threatens Malawi with deeper economic crisis
Economists warn that inadequate government financing for El Niño preparedness could worsen the country's economic outlook.
Malawi faces significant economic damage if the government fails to adequately fund and implement measures against a severe El Niño, economists have warned. Marvin Banda, an economist, cautioned that a projected GDP impact of 1-7 percent signals potential severe economic damage, not an automatic recession. He stressed that interventions must precede crop losses and food shortages, stating that Malawi's vulnerability lies in its slow response, which risks occurring after damage is done.
As of September 2026, Malawi had mobilized K163.7 billion against the K488.5 billion needed for the El Niño Preparedness Plan, leaving a K324.8 billion shortfall. This lack of funding raises concerns about the country's ability to implement preventive measures effectively and at the necessary speed. While the government's preparedness plan is commended, economists fear inadequate financing could undermine its success.
Economist Velli Nyirongo highlighted Malawi's high dependence on rain-fed agriculture, classifying the potential El Niño as a major economic risk. This situation could force increased government spending on food aid and disaster response, straining an already limited fiscal space. Nyirongo called for immediate, well-funded action, including investments in irrigation, climate-smart agriculture, and timely access to affordable farm inputs.
Why it mattersMalawi's economy is threatened by potential agricultural catastrophe and increased disaster spending due to El Niño, exacerbated by insufficient government funding for preparedness measures.