South Africa's power outlook relies on uncertain assumptions
A new 10-year electricity plan faces doubts after a failed gas tender and ambitious Eskom targets.
South Africa's electricity supply may remain stable for the next decade, according to the National Transmission Company South Africa's (NTCSA) Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2027-2036. This forecast depends on Eskom improving its plant performance, new generation capacity arriving on schedule, and the transmission grid expanding as planned.
However, the report's optimistic scenario, published on October 30, 2026, is already challenged by the recent failure of the government's first gas-to-power procurement round. The NTCSA's reference case assumes significant new renewable energy, storage, transmission upgrades, and new gas generation from 2032, alongside Eskom's energy availability factor rising from 66% to 70%.
Even with these assumptions, the outlook projects 13.42 GWh and 377 hours of unserved energy by 2036, indicating potential demand shortfalls. The report's modelling represents a significant advance, but its outcomes are conditional and not certain.
Why it mattersSouth African businesses and households face continued uncertainty regarding electricity supply due to the conditional nature of the new 10-year outlook.